Using a computer model, the authors found that with current state-level vaccination rates, measles could reestablish itself and become consistently present in the United States in the next two decades. If current vaccination rates stay the same, the model estimated that the US could see more than 850,000 cases, 170,000 hospitalizations, and 2,500 deaths over the next 25 years. “The big point is that measles is very likely to become endemic quickly if we continue in this way.”The United States declared measles eliminated in 2000 after decades of successful vaccination campaigns. The current measles outbreak in Texas, however, could put that status at risk. Nationally, the US has seen 800 cases of measles so far in 2025, the most since 2019.