A "modest recession" will come into play by the second quarter of the year, the firm says. Like the other reports, Deloitte's sees the nation's real GDP growth and economic momentum dwindling in 2025 and 2026, pushing into the negatives in Q2 (-1.1 per cent) and Q3 (0.9 per cent). Only New Brunswick and Quebec are slated to do worse economically, with growth rates of 0.6 per cent. They then paint a particularly devastating worst-case situation in which Canada's real GDP "would permanently lower by around 3 per cent by 2030" if CUSMA is revised or terminated. (Experts say the U.S. President's tariff actions thus far have already "blown a complete hole" in the agreement, mind you.)