That's according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) -- our football ratings and projection model -- which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season. Jump to:Top teams | Super Bowl | NFC NorthNFC West | AFC East | AFC NorthWho's last? All five teams in the top tier have at least an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl, and there is a 50% chance that the Super Bowl winner will be one of those five teams. The 4.2% chance of a Super Bowl LIX repeat is the greatest of any combination of teams in our Super Bowl matchup projections, slightly besting the 3.6% chances of Ravens-Eagles and Bills-Eagles matchups. And the Bills have a 65% chance to win their division -- the highest of any team in the NFL by a hefty margin.