Earlier this year, astronomers alerted the world to a startling possibility: based on initial calculations, it appeared that a recently discovered asteroid known as 2024 YR4 had a not-zero chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. “The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon on 22 December 2032 is now approximately 4 percent, and this probability was still slowly rising as the asteroid faded out of view,” the European Space Agency said in its most recent update. So what happens if 2024 YR4 really does collide with the moon? That said, there isn’t a major worry that an asteroid of 2024 YR’s size would result in lunar armageddon. “NEOMIR would have detected asteroid 2024 YR4 about a month earlier than ground-based telescopes did,” Moissl explained.