Tesla CEO and billionaire Elon Musk has long garnered a reputation for being massively wrong in his promises and predictions about the future. He also successfully bet against Musk’s prediction that Tesla would launch an “unsupervised” version of its erroneously-named “Full Self-Driving” software by the end of 2025. Online prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years. Even Musk himself has frequently voiced his support for prediction markets. For instance, only 13 percent of Kalshi users believe Musk will make good on his recent threat to buy airline Ryanair by the end of this year.