We'll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:Locks: Teams that would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 12 current teamsWork to do: The truest "on the bubble" teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip. But conditional at-large chances below 30% suggest they are in serious limbo without additional résumé boosters. Either way, with a consensus at-large probability in the teens, the Bears certainly have "work to do." They sit 45th nationally in the résumé rankings and their consensus at-large chances are 65%.